John Smith’s Update
A bit of a strange week and i’m not even referring to the multitude of sporting events that are going on right now with the Euros, Wimbledon, Tour de France, England ODIs and the start of the Lions tour, it’s hard to keep up with it all!
Obviously for us the big (non) event of the week was Surrey Mist’s ‘debut’ at Epsom which didn’t quite go according to plan. He was so relaxed in the prelims and trotted down calmly to the start. Unfortunately one of the other horses in the race was playing up and made the stalls rattle. Mist was half in, backed out, I thought the handlers were too quick to put a hood on him, so when he then backed further away he hit a barrier behind which spooked him. He broke through that barrier, throw off the jockey and had a trot over Epsom Downs. He didn’t bolt, he was still calm, didn’t get injured and after the race Callum Shepherd rode him nicely back. Mist was fine the next day but he did lose 12 kgs which is a lot even if he’d run in the race, probably stress related. He’ll have a few weeks putting the weight back on and will try again in 3 weeks time. It’s tough on these young horses, we’ve never had a horse run so young and he’s never shown any problems in his barrier trials so I think it’s just one of those things. There’s a maiden race at Sandown on the 22nd that may work.
The other news this week is that Surrey Gold was given a 2 pound rise by the handicapper. It has led to a lot of communications between us, Hughie and the BHA. We find it hard to see how, 6 weeks after Gold’s last run that the handicapper can feel that he wasn’t given enough of a hike from his win at Newbury (which he was raised 12 pounds to an Official Rating of 87). Hughie argued that the BHA haven’t taken into account that over that period some horses especially 2 and 3 yr olds improve more than others, and the fact that we have to make plans for horses and this sort of behaviour leaves us with little confidence to make such plans. At the very least the relevant handicapper should have had the decency to forewarn us. We argued that we can’t see any out performance from any horse out of Surrey Gold’s run at Newbury (and also if we look at his prior performance 8 weeks ago at Lingfield) where in a 10 horse field, there’s only been 1 winner from a subsequent 10 runs, and actually if anything it could be argued we should have had a rating cut?
The BHA’s explanation
To deal with the initial rise of 12lb from Newbury. There is little doubt this is his best effort to date, probably due to natural improvement and the cut in the ground – looking at Mark Olley’s notes on the race he stated “Competitive 3yo handicap turned into a procession by Surrey Gold – sat off the pace, travelled strongly into it and came clear for a wide margin success – this was impressive.” If I had been the owner of the 2nd, I would definitely have wanted a 12lb “pull” for 7 lengths to encourage me to take you on again – I suspect you would have felt the same way if one of yours had been beaten in the same manner?
Handicapping is of course a fairly fluid exercise, particularly with 2 and 3yo and one of our regular jobs on a Monday afternoon (prior to Tuesday morning deadline) is to check how the previous weeks results have impacted on earlier decisions – are some race too high in retrospect, are some too low, are we still happy with the relativity between horses, are changes to previous results required? It’s not easy, as I am sure you can appreciate.
In terms of the Newbury race, this is where we are now:
Surrey Gold +14lb – not seen since
Alpine Stroll +2llb - slightly below form next run on quicker ground, neck 2nd back on slower ground at Salisbury last week and raised 2lb: still 12lb better off with SG
Duke of Verona = - not seen since: 14lb better off for 9 lengths
Oceanline +6lb - winner off 75 next time: now 8lb better off for 11 lengths
Scampi +3lb - 2nd off 70 next time and raised to 74: now 11lb better off for 12.75 lengths
Liberated Lad -3lb - below par next time: dropped 2lb; now 17lb better off for 14.75 lengths
Otyrar +1lb - 2nd off 83 next time; raised 2lb; now 13lb better off for 17.75 lengths
I think the explanation of collateral changes on the website sums the situation up pretty well but quite understand that a fuller explanation of an individual situation can make the process clearer.
Our counter argument was that (as Hughie noted) the race was 6 weeks ago, fair enough if the 2nd or 3rd ran blinders next time within 1 or 2 weeks, but 6 weeks later, on different ground, that doesn’t feel right to then look back retrospectively.
Looking at the BHA notes – Alpine Stroll did the same next race, Duke of Verona probably didn’t like the ground and 14 lbs now seems harsh, Oceanline clearly prefers further over quicker ground, and the same with Scampi, another who performed much better on quicker ground. I can’t see how the analysis stacks up and that is alongside Hughie’s argument, of course every horse has good days and off days and improvements are seen after runs (and the opposite). We do appreciate it’s a tough job but do we now have to wait until the Autumn where to run against Oceanline and Scampi the only chance we have is heavy ground?
We did decide to appeal only to see that is costs money, we have to provide enough evidence to change their view, and the BHA advised us the appeal will more than likely fail so for 2 pounds we have decided against that but have asked the BHA to take our case to their monthly meeting to discus it, provide greater transparency and debate whether 6 weeks passed is too long a time frame. Interestingly the BHA don’t track horses as such, they track races, so each race gets a rating and the Newbury race that Gold won continues to move up in rating hence the winner gets another further collateral rise.
Surrey Gold is pretty much back to normal, so he may have an entry into the Betfred Nifty Fifty handicap at Ascot on Saturday (10th), it’s a class 2 (0-105) race for three year olds over a mile and a half. We will see how he is tomorrow morning before the entry stage but the current going is good to soft with some heavy rain forecast midweek, I think it could work.
Surrey Knight is back trotting and very well, Surrey Princess is ahead of her rehab schedule, and the NH horses continue to enjoy their holiday.
That leaves Surrey Pride – who had another racecourse gallop last week, this time at Kempton and by all accounts he was very impressive. Joe is very happy with how the prep and is confident he’ll be in top condition for the weekend. For the John Smith’s Cup at York we do need 17 more horses to drop with the final confirmation stage tomorrow. York have promised the owners 12 tickets (forfeiting lunch) so hopefully another yellow and blue showing live on ITV!
Good Luck to England, Surrey Pride and Surrey Gold – what a week it could be!